
Western aid to Ukraine is a value marker
Ukraine is shedding blood for peace and Western democracy, but Europe and the West have not yet realized this.
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To understand the real values and priorities of a country, company or person, follow ... money. Thousands of documents, statements, appeals in support of peace and democracy can be adopted every year, but this will only be a ritual shake of the air in front of the nose of the Nazi aggressor, who kills civilians in Ukraine with missiles and drones, who openly calls the West an enemy. When Ukrainians ask, beg, demand, convince the EU/G7/NATO to provide enough weapons and resources to wage war against the biggest threat to European democracy and peace, in response they are offered to implement thousands of European legislative norms - from fishing parameters to the size and shape of cucumbers, from gender equality to "green" metallurgy, as well as urgently implement regulatory, tax, financial, customs legislation. Yes, it is difficult, Eurobureaucrats admit - but who said, dear Ukrainians, that the path to the EU is lined with roses?
- a considerable decrease in inflation,
- normal functioning of the banking system,
- resumption of work of many businesses.
- Values. Ukraine is a liberal democracy that respects human rights, the rule of law, and strives for a united Europe. If Russia is not defeated, it will be a defeat of the West, a failure of democracy and a huge support of all totalitarian, Nazi, fascist, barbaric regimes around the world.
- Safety. Putin's Russia is a real threat to Europe and the world. It is aimed at the subjugation and enslavement of neighbors. Ukraine restrains the spread of this threat by weakening the aggressor. At the same time, NATO countries have helped Ukraine very modestly - in the amount of 3% of military expenses. Not budget expenditures, not GDP, but only defense expenditures.
- The first is that the recovery plan must first of all be developed by the Ukrainian government, taking into account the proposals of the foreign partners.
- The second principle is "partnership conditions should correspond to the reconstruction plan and correspond to the stage of reconstruction", a bet on the leadership of the IMF during the implementation of the institutional reforms.
- The third principle is "we propose to limit additional requirements to avoid overloading the Ukrainian government."
Military and humanitarian aid: figures and facts
- According to the data of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, on April 30, 2024, the EU institutions committed themselves to allocating (loans, grants, guarantees) in the amount of 152 billion euros, and allocated 87 billion euros (57.2% of the promised amount). This is ~0.3% of the state expenditures of the EU countries. Their aggregate state expenditures exceed 50% of GDP.
- In April 2023, Switzerland adopted a program to support Ukraine for 2025-2028 in the amount of 1.6 billion euros. It has not yet started to be implemented.
- In February 2023, Norway made a resolution to provide aid to Ukraine for 2023-2027. for 6.6 billion euros. As of the beginning of March 2024, only 1.2 billion was allocated.
- The US reached peak obligations at the end of 2022 - 70.38 billion euros. Then, until the end of April 2024, the US government did not make any commitments. In the period from January to July, 2023, the average monthly allocation of resources to Ukraine from the USA amounted to 2.9 billion euros. In the period from August to December 2023, they decreased to 570 million euros per month. According to the law passed in April 2024, the supply from the USA until July 2024 did not actually exceed one billion euros per month.


Recommendations of the International Liberty Institute
- Post-war reconstruction. Before the victory over Putin's Russia, the Ukrainian authorities need to limit conversations and activities related to the discussion of how the hypothetical $400-1000 billion of foreign money will be spent after the victory. It was a gross mistake to divert attention to the Lugano Plan (June 2022). It is absolutely necessary to ensure adequate, uninterrupted military, resource and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in order to achieve a confident position on the battlefield. When the G7/NATO/EU increases support to Ukraine to at least 1% of GDP, then we will quickly defeat the enemy.
- Synchronization of regulatory legislation with the EU. The activities of the Government of Ukraine in synchronizing regulatory legislation with the EU during the war will not bring the expected results, but will significantly worsen the situation in the blood-soaked country. The diplomatic efforts of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should be aimed at explaining to Western capitals that a real bloody war does not require European bureaucracy, but European freedom, which has made the West the most successful civilization in the history of mankind. We are surprised by the position of the scientists, CEPR experts, including the Ukrainian colleagues, who do not understand this, as well as the fact that the system of risk and uncertainty management in war conditions is fundamentally different from the peaceful European Union.
- Taxes. Any demands of Ukraine's external partners regarding the preservation of the current tax and monetary policy, tax increases, "killing" simplified regimes of business activity, strengthening control over commercial activities harm Ukraine, weaken our defense capability and competitiveness.
- Strategy for investors. The G7/NATO/EU countries still do not understand the true priorities of the Ukrainian authorities. One group needs the Lugano plan, another does not need Lend-Lease, the third is lobbying for grain schemes, the fourth is creating a bond syndicate, the fifth is fascinated by opaque public procurement for Prozorro, the development of money for road construction, etc. The Ukrainian Leviathan is not an attractive value benchmark of a strategic partner country for the world, therefore Ukraine needs to define priorities that are attractive for investment. The G7/NATO/EU countries do not imagine the world without Russia, as before - without the USSR. They do not see how a powerful Ukraine can completely replace Russia in production value chains. Here, too, there is a clear lack of work on the part of the Ukrainian authorities.
- NATO. Ukraine and our partners abroad need to make every effort to finally bring NATO out of torpor, to remind it of the real threats to peace, to remind it of its raison de vivre (reason to live). This also requires the efforts of organizations such as CEPR, CSIS, McKinsey, etc. It will be much more beneficial for Ukraine and the West when, instead of forcing Ukraine to build a state of total interventionism, they will bring the West out of its lethargic sleep in terms of realizing true values.
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Yaroslav Romanchuk
A well-known Ukrainian and Belarusian economist, popularizer of the Austrian economic school in the post-Soviet space. He specializes in reforms in transitional economies in the post-socialist space.
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