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Economic Security: Index 2025

Economic Security: Index 2025

Implementing the conclusions and benchmarks of the Economic Security Index guarantees quick results that will be felt in the country's defense capabilities and economic growth within a year.

4 December, 2025
Economic Freedom
Governance and Regulations
Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy
Politics & Law
Reforms

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A few years ago, economic security was considered to be limited to issues such as ensuring the country's supply of food, energy resources, and critical components for domestic production. Within the framework of their own understanding of economic security, governments resorted to trade protectionism, introduced special regulatory regimes, practicing discrimination, and leadership. Due to the war, such economic policies slowed down economic growth, hampered investment, and increased the opportunity costs for both producers and consumers. But no conclusions were drawn, with imbalances being attributed to "market imperfections" or "external circumstances".

No one saw the government itself, which follows a model of general interventionism, as one of the main sources of economic danger.
Only in 2023, after the start of the full-scale war on the European continent, did people begin to discuss the importance of this factor for the successful and safe development of countries. The European Commission has identified that the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people, as well as equal conditions for economic activity and competition, the reduction of regulatory burdens, and the acceleration and simplification of regulatory legislation and licensing procedures, are strategically important areas for ensuring the security of the European Union's economy. However, our analysis of the EU regulatory framework suggests that the concept of economic security in the European Union has not been fully developed. Existing strategies demonstrate a lack of understanding of potentially dangerous phenomena that inevitably arise when the state, rather than the individual, is placed at the center of strategy.
Source: Europe’s Choice. Political Guidelines for the next European Commission 2024-2029. Ursula von der Leyen
https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/e6cd4328-673c-4e7a-8683-f63ffb2cf648_en?filename=Political%20Guidelines%202024-2029_EN.pdf
According to ILI experts, state dominance is clearly evident in the economic development of post-Soviet countries that later joined the European Union and began to build institutions in accordance with relevant directives and standards — Poland, the Czech Republic, and especially Romania. A reconsideration by these countries of the place, role, and scale of the state in the economy could turn them into new “tigers” and also strengthen their economic security in light of existential military threats from Russia. More on this can be found in the Economic Security Index.
Download Economic Security Index 2025
State-centrism and a hot war, both of which require substantial resources, are not potential challenges for Ukraine; they are our daily reality. According to the author of the Index, ILI President Yaroslav Romanchuk, Ukraine needs to operate in the Index's “Green Zone” for 10–15 years, limiting inflation and state intervention in the economy, to achieve sustainable long-term economic growth. But instead, the country has worsened its performance since last year and is stuck in macroeconomic problems, with tax hell and financial and monetary instability being the main causes of growing stagnation against the backdrop of a war that has no end in sight.
However, it should be noted that Ukraine has achieved progress in the current index in terms of legal factors that indicate that the authorities take into account the public's reaction to certain events, and that Ukraine is not a totalitarian country like Russia or Belarus, which is the foundation for a potential reboot of institutions on a fundamentally different basis.
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Source: Economic Security Index 2025, International Liberty Institute (ILI)
https://d2c4wny57m91c4.cloudfront.net/Index_Economic_Security_2025_ukr_3617019129.pdf
Ukraine's national economic security system is in a dangerous “orange” zone, with its performance having deteriorated over the past year. The main threat to economic security is the functionality, size, and discretion of the state. Despite its considerable potential, Ukraine is losing even regional competition for advanced technologies and profitable niches in global value chains.
Without changing the relationship between the state and business, the erosion of Ukraine's comparative advantages after victory in the war will accelerate.
Developed capitalist countries, NATO members—the US, Germany, Finland—are betting on private property and economic freedom, the rule of law, and innovation. There is no case where a country is in the top 30 of the world's major indices and has weak economic security. Why? Because indices are markers of the presence of incentives for entrepreneurial initiative in countries.
The only model that Ukraine has not used in all the years of its independence is the model of a free market and capitalism.
According to Y. Romanchuk, implementing the Index's conclusions would yield very quick results, which Ukrainians would feel in terms of the country's defense capabilities within a year:
L"If the recommendations of the Economic Security Index were implemented in 2026, this would definitely have a positive impact on economic growth, Ukraine's investment attractiveness, as well as the stability of Ukraine's armed forces and the country's security system as a whole. These things are absolutely interrelated."L
At the same time, he considers the IMF's technocratic approach, which essentially requires an increase in the tax and regulatory burden on businesses that are already bleeding dry, to be unacceptable and harmful. The Ukrainian government must not only take into account the fund's requirements, but also take responsibility for the state of the economy in Ukraine and explain to creditors how this will increase the shadow economy and, accordingly, reduce budget revenues.
Unfortunately, the IMF is a source of negative practices and policies that do not improve but rather undermine Ukraine's economy. Most European Union countries have a lower tax burden in peacetime than Ukraine has during wartime. At the same time, the IMF is forcing further increases in this burden. They do not understand the nature of small businesses in Ukraine and how it affects not only budget revenues, but also stability, solidarity among entrepreneurs, and the spirit of Ukrainian identity in general. We recommend that the government, in light of the index's findings, not implement the IMF's recommendations.
Source: Y. Romanchuk, Director of the International Liberty Institute (ILI), presentation of ESI-2025, Interfax, December 3, 2025

Human-centered approach to Ukraine's Economic Security Concept

In 2024, the International Liberty Institute (ILI) proposed an innovative Concept of Economic Security to the Government and Ukrainians, based on a human-centered approach. Unlike the dominant approach to national economic security, in which the state and government play a central role, we propose placing people at the center of the economic security system, in their various roles: producers, entrepreneurs, consumers, investors, lenders, borrowers, etc.
It is the individual, as an integral part, who should be at the center of the national economic security system.
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The strategy describes the institutions, mechanisms, and relationships within the country in the areas of production, exchange, and consumption of resources and assets. The human-centered nature of the economic security system means organizing the economy based on economic freedom. This form of capital, this intangible asset, has an unprecedented impact on the economic, financial, social, and environmental aspects of human life. However, to implement the Concept, it is necessary to impose a strict “straitjacket” on the actions and expenditures of the Government.
We proceed from the assumption that economic security should be based on the protection of human rights and freedoms, property rights, and equal opportunities in labor and entrepreneurship. This requires a clear legal and institutional framework that limits the functions, size, and powers of the state in the economy. In fact, in Ukraine, an official possesses the state. The straitjacket for the government proposed in the Index Recommendations serves as a beacon toward which we should move.
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Source: M. Kamchatnyi, Director of the International Liberty Institute (ILI), presentation of ESI-2025, Interfax, 03.12.2025
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Recommendations to the Government of Ukraine and the governments of the countries in the “orange zone” of the Index

  • Conducting a thorough review of legislation, taking into account scientific findings and empirical observations;
  • Reduction of the functions, size, format, and mode of the State's presence in the economy;
  • Abandonment of the practice of “growth points” and strategic sectors;
  • Ukraine's entry into the Top 30 countries in the world according to important global indices;
  • Deregulation, privatization, and new fiscal and monetary policies;
  • Conducting an annual audit of the state, setting clear deadlines for improving economic policy parameters;
  • Make the main laws that define the parameters of economic policy consistent with the Mises-Hayek-Schumpeter model of entrepreneurial growth.

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Natalia Slyusar

The editor-in-chief of the website of the International Freedom Institute, manager of media projects. She has many years of experience in the media as a manager, journalist and consultant, as well as a CEO in business projects. She specializes in promoting the ideas and philosophy of AES in the media.

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Tetiana Stroiko

Tetiana Stroiko, science editor of ILI. Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor of the Department of Intelligent Digital Economy at the National University of Shipbuilding named after Makarov (Mikolayiv).

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Yaroslav Romanchuk

A well-known Ukrainian and Belarusian economist, popularizer of the Austrian economic school in the post-Soviet space. He specializes in reforms in transitional economies in the post-socialist space.

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