We do not have a free exchange rate - Romanchuk for Comments.ua

We do not have a free exchange rate Economist, President of the International Institute of Liberty (Ukraine) Yaroslav Romanchuk immediately drew attention to the fact that in Ukraine there is no free exchange rate, there is no free floating exchange rate, but there is a so-called dirty float or a fairly wide currency corridor, which is determined by the decisions of our external partners, including the IMF and our government.

"That's why everything here is so predictable, ironclad. True, on one condition - the timely formation of gold and foreign exchange reserves and the receipt of aid, since both the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank said that during 2025 we will receive quite serious funds - more than 140 billion dollars. Therefore, without violating this rule, there will be no rough edges. Consequently, the rate will fluctuate around 1-2 hryvnia. That is, the rate will be, for example, not 43 UAH per dollar, but 45-46 until the end of the year. If you look at the IMF forecast, which it made in December 2024, then this is the corridor that the National Bank will not refuse," the economist noted.

He clarified that if there are already some non-monetary factors, when they give us enough aid or do not give it at all, then we will react. But Yaroslav Romanchuk believes that it would be more correct for the National Bank to bring the monetary policy, exchange rate, and balance of payments closer to market conditions now, rather than wait for it to be locked up. Discussing whether it is advisable to let the exchange rate float freely, the expert says that we already see that our trade balance has a huge deficit. This is a problem.